Retailers warned fraud & disputes may stretch into new year

Chargebacks911 has warned that retailers face a longer period of fraud and disputes as holiday shopping starts earlier, with risks from Golden Quarter sales continuing into the new year.

Research cited by the company suggests consumers are bringing forward holiday purchases, extending the period in which merchants may later face refund claims, returns abuse and chargebacks. Attentive's 2026 Consumer Pulse research found that 71% of shoppers plan to start holiday shopping before Black Friday, while 46% intend to begin before November.

Earlier demand also appears to be lengthening the fraud window. Stripe's analysis of the 2025 holiday shopping period found fraud activity began trending upward on November 8 and remained elevated throughout December.

Chargebacks911's 2026 Chargeback Field Report points to mounting pressure on merchants after the point of sale. More than 61% of merchants surveyed said chargebacks had become more frequent over the past three years, while businesses estimated that abusive requests accounted for 27.1% of all returns.

These figures suggest retailers may record strong seasonal sales without yet seeing the full cost of those transactions. Disputes, refunds and chargebacks linked to purchases made in November and December can surface weeks later, affecting reported performance after the holiday period ends.

Monica Eaton, Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Chargebacks911, said retailers often focus on top-line sales during the busiest shopping period while overlooking losses that emerge later.

"Retailers will spend the Golden Quarter measuring transactions, conversion and sales, but none of those numbers tells them what peak season ultimately made them," said Eaton, Founder and Chief Executive Officer, Chargebacks911.

"A sale can look successful in December and become a refund, dispute or chargeback weeks later. The sale happens at Christmas, but the loss can arrive in February."

Risk after checkout

The warning reflects a broader shift in how retailers manage fraud. Traditional controls often focus on the moment of purchase, screening transactions for signs of stolen credentials or other third-party criminal activity before approving payment.

But some losses become visible only later. Refund abuse and so-called friendly fraud can involve an apparently legitimate customer using valid payment details for a transaction that raises no alarm at checkout, only for the merchant to face a disputed payment or an allegedly improper return later.

This leaves retailers balancing two competing pressures during peak trading. They need to keep checkout and returns processes simple enough to avoid deterring genuine customers while also trying to limit misuse of refund policies and post-purchase dispute channels.

Chargebacks911 found that 62% of merchants described refund abuse as a moderate or significant concern. That points to the growing cost of handling losses that do not fit the standard pattern of card fraud detected at the time of payment.

Eaton said businesses should therefore track what happens to approved transactions after the initial sale.

"Peak-season readiness cannot stop at checkout," said Eaton.

"Retailers rightly invest enormous effort in keeping payments flowing and stopping criminal fraud during their busiest trading period. But they also need to know what happens to those transactions afterwards. If you only measure what you approved or declined in December, you are missing part of the economics of peak season."

Returns pressure

The issue is sharpened by consumer expectations for easy returns during the holiday season. Many merchants use flexible returns and refund policies to encourage spending, but those same policies can create opportunities for abuse.

Chargebacks911 argues that retailers should not respond by making the process harder for legitimate shoppers. Instead, merchants need better visibility across transactions, refunds and disputes so they can identify repeat misuse without creating more friction for all customers.

The company pointed to first-party fraud, including refund and promotional abuse, as an increasing challenge during the holiday period. According to the Stripe analysis cited, fraud risk was not confined to the Black Friday weekend but extended across the wider shopping season.

That means the final economics of Golden Quarter trading may still be unclear when December sales figures are first reported. Returns, refund requests, and card disputes lodged in the new year can still reduce revenue booked before Christmas.

"Retailers should not respond to abuse by making every genuine customer jump through more hoops," said Eaton.

"They need to get better at distinguishing a good customer with a genuine problem from someone repeatedly exploiting the system. The Golden Quarter does not end when the last Christmas order ships. Merchants need to be prepared for what comes back."