Adobe report predicts mobile shopping to dominate holiday sales

Adobe has released a new report from Adobe Analytics forecasting significant changes in consumer behaviour for the upcoming 2024 holiday shopping season. According to the report, mobile shopping is expected to drive 53% of all online sales during this period, perpetuating the trend of increasing dominance of mobile devices in e-commerce.

The shift towards mobile shopping is notably evident in sectors such as groceries and personal care. Groceries saw a 68.2% share of online sales via mobile devices in July 2024. Additionally, the personal care category, including cosmetics, reported USD $22.6 billion in online sales from January to July 2024, marking a 7.6% increase year-over-year. Adobe's analysis suggests a steady shift in consumer behaviour towards mobile devices for shopping, a trend that has been strengthening over the past few years.

The comprehensive data from Adobe Analytics is based on the analysis of over one trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, covering 100 million SKUs and 18 product categories. Vivek Pandya, lead analyst at Adobe Digital Insights, pointed out the growth in mobile shopping, driven by consumer demand for convenience and speed. During the 2021 holiday season, mobile devices accounted for 43% of online sales, a modest rise from 40% in 2020. This percentage increased to 51% in the 2023 holiday season, surpassing desktop shopping for the first time. Adobe projects that this figure will reach 53% in the 2024 holiday season.

Pandya commented on the evolving consumer preferences: “Adobe Analytics data shows that consumers have embraced mobile shopping for purchases that are more frequent and lower in price, but we expect larger purchases will begin to shift towards smaller screens as well.” He also noted that the current basket sizes on mobile devices are 32% smaller than those on desktops, presenting a challenge and an opportunity for brands to enhance mobile experiences and boost revenue.

The report highlights that mobile shopping has shown consistent growth throughout 2024. In January, mobile accounted for 46.7% of all online sales, which increased to 49.3% by July, averaging 47.7% over the seven months. This period also saw a record USD $280.4 billion spent via mobile devices, a 10.2% year-over-year growth. Promotional events such as Prime Day and the Fourth of July have contributed to this rise, with mobile sales consistently surpassing desktop shopping during these events, averaging a 51% share.

Specific categories driving the growth of mobile shopping include groceries, which have seen online spending rise by 15% year-over-year, totalling USD $66.9 billion from January to July 2024. Personal care items, especially cosmetics, illustrate a similar trend, with 77% of online sales coming through mobile devices in July 2024. Apparel also recorded a dominant mobile share at 60.8% in the same month.

On the other hand, categories like electronics and home improvement have shown less traction on mobile devices, with shares of 21.3% and 33.3% respectively, as of July 2024.

Adobe's data reveals a disparity between large and small retailers in terms of mobile shopping trends. Larger retailers, with annual revenues of USD $1 billion or more, have seen a more significant shift towards mobile devices, capturing 52.8% of online sales on average. In contrast, smaller retailers, with annual revenues between USD $10 million to USD $100 million, have a mobile share of 43%. This signals an opportunity for smaller retailers as mobile shopping tends to drive more impulse purchases and potential revenue growth.

Consumer spending in 2024 has been robust, driven primarily by new demand rather than increased prices. The Adobe Digital Price Index, which monitors online prices across 18 product categories, indicates that e-commerce prices have decreased for 23 consecutive months, down 3.7% year-over-year in July 2024. Although Adobe's spending figures are not adjusted for inflation, factoring in online inflation would reveal even higher growth in consumer spending.